Early Nonfarm Payrolls Help Dollar Despite Bad Data

EUR/USD fell sharply today paring the weekly gain as the employment statistics in U.S. was released. Not only employment figures disappointed market participants, but also ISM services index declined faster than expected in June. But for some strange reason that supported the U.S. dollar and it showed the fastest daily gain since April 24. EUR/USD declined from 1.5890 to 1.5695.

Nonfarm payrolls lost 62k in June, that loss followed the same decline in May (revised up from 49k loss) and was worse than 60k of the forecast. Unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, while it was expected to fall to 5.4%.

ISM services index lost 3.5% in June and is now at 48.2%. It was expected to go down to 51.0% only. The current decline in this index followed decline in May, which indicates a real stagnation in the non-manufacturing sector.

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Forex Technical Analysis for 06/16—06/20 Week

EUR/USD trend: sell.
GBP/USD trend: sell.
USD/JPY trend: buy.
EUR/JPY trend: hold.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.4632	1.4967	1.5173	1.5508	1.5714	1.6049	1.6255
GBP/USD	1.8931	1.9169	1.9323	1.9561	1.9715	1.9953	2.0107
USD/JPY	101.69	103.06	105.63	107.00	109.57	110.94	113.51
EUR/JPY	163.03	164.00	165.20	166.17	167.37	168.34	169.54

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.4935	1.5109	1.5476	1.5650	1.6017
GBP/USD	1.9169	1.9323	1.9561	1.9715	1.9953
USD/JPY	103.06	105.63	107.00	109.57	110.94
EUR/JPY	164.00	165.20	166.17	167.37	168.34

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.5081	1.5230	1.5280	1.5329	1.5429	1.5478	1.5528	1.5677
GBP/USD	1.9260	1.9368	1.9404	1.9440	1.9512	1.9548	1.9584	1.9692
USD/JPY	106.02	107.11	107.47	107.83	108.55	108.91	109.27	110.36
EUR/JPY	165.21	165.80	166.00	166.20	166.60	166.80	167.00	167.59

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
Pair	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance	1.5611	1.9834	110.26	166.77
Support	1.5070	1.9442	106.32	164.60

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.5843	1.9800	108.38	167.14
61.8%	1.5636	1.9650	106.87	166.31
50.0%	1.5573	1.9604	106.41	166.06
38.2%	1.5509	1.9558	105.95	165.80
23.6%	1.5430	1.9501	105.37	165.48
0.0%	1.5302	1.9408	104.44	164.97

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EUR/USD Trade Idea for the Next Week

EUR/USD daily chart is currently showing a good possibility of a bearish breakout from the range traded since April 22. You can see the present range on this picture below:

If the next trading day closes below the current support line (which is near 1.5379 level), there is a great possibility of a fast drop on EUR/USD down to about 1.5000 rate. On the other hand it can fall back from the current level and continue trading within the range. Anyway if the range persists, a closing bar below the lower bond will mean a strong bearish breakout, while a close above the upper bond wouldn’t necessarily mean a bullish breakout.

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