The Yen is At the Mercy of the Carry-Trade…For Now

From Our Friends at EverBank…

The FOMC wasn't the only central bank meeting yesterday, the Bank of Japan announced they would leave rates unchanged. This was again largely expected by the markets, but some of the accompanying language showed their concern with inflation.

The BOJ predicted inflation would accelerate but also cut its economic growth forecast. The report tried to downplay any predictions of interest rate moves, and the markets seem to think the BOJ will leave rates unchanged through the end of the year.

The yen didn’t really react to the news, as markets had already predicted the outcome.

The Japanese yen will continue to be at the mercy of the carry trade for now. As you know, carry trades only work in low-risk markets. Once risk returns to the markets, traders have to reverse their carry trades and money rushes back to the Japanese yen. When that happens, the yen rallies.

But right now, risk is coming back in style in the markets. Traders are placing more carry trades, so the yen has been sold.

But we believe there will be another Bear Stearns-type event which will remind the markets that everything is not ok right now. When that happens, these carry trades will again be reversed and the current 104 levels on the yen will look cheap.

Click here for more on why Bernanke may actually help this process along this year.